Liver Int：慢性乙型肝炎患者肝细胞癌动态风险预测

2017-09-09 MedSci MedSci原创

目前有几种肝细胞癌的风险预测模型。我们探讨了风险预测模型是否能在慢性乙型肝炎(CHB)患者的不同时间点动态预测HCC的发展。近日，Jeon等人在Liver Int杂志上发表的研究表明，CU-HCC, REACH-B, LSM-HCC和mREACH-B等四种模型均能够在不同时间点动态预测HCC的发展，其中，mREACH-B模型是HCC最恰当的预测模型。

目前有几种肝细胞癌的风险预测模型。我们探讨了风险预测模型是否能在慢性乙型肝炎(CHB)患者的不同时间点动态预测HCC的发展。近日，Jeon等人在Liver Int杂志上发表的研究表明，CU-HCC， REACH-B， LSM-HCC和mREACH-B等四种模型均能够在不同时间点动态预测HCC的发展，其中，mREACH-B模型是HCC最恰当的预测模型。

从2006年-2014年，该项研究共纳入1397例CHB患者。所有患者在间隔大于6个月时，均行瞬间弹性成像检测。

研究结果表明：患者（932例男性、466例女性）平均年龄为49.0岁。基线时，CU-HCC， REACH-B， LSM-HCC和mREACH-B评分分别是4.0， 9.0， 10.0和8.0。随访期间（中位随访时间为：68.0月），87例（6.2%）患者发生HCC。所有预测模型在第一次肝硬度（LS）检测时（没有接受抗病毒治疗的亚组，危险比：1.067-1.467；抗病毒治疗亚组，危险比：1.096-1.458）和第二次肝硬度（LS）检测时（没有接受抗病毒治疗的亚组，危险比：1.125-1.448；抗病毒治疗亚组，危险比：1.087-1.249），都能成功预测HCC发展。与此相反，风险预测模型得分或百分比变化都不能预测HCC发展(所有P > 0.05)。

mREACH-B模型的预测能力与其他模型相似或明显好于其他预测模型的预测能力(5年的受试者工作特征曲线下面积，0.694-0.862 vs.0.537-0.875)。

原始出处：

Jeon MY， Lee HW， Kim SU， et al. Feasibility of Dynamic Risk Prediction for Hepatocellular Carcinoma Development in Patients With Chronic Hepatitis B. Liver Int， 2017， Sep 2. doi： 10.1111/liv.13583.

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2018-04-06 xjy02

#肝细胞#

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2018-02-27 huiwelcome

#肝炎患者#

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2017-12-23 okhuali

#乙型肝炎#

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2018-05-09 qingting

#细胞癌#

34 0
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2017-09-11 guguangxiang

#慢性乙型肝炎#

25 0
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2017-09-11 12498ebem21暂无昵称

#风险预测#

19 0

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