Alphabet施密特:看好人工智能+医疗

2017-05-25 佚名 中国投资咨询网

施密特最看好人工智能在医疗领域的应用和前景。

5月24日上午消息,中国围棋峰会今日继续进行,在AlphaGo和柯洁首局比赛日后,主办方通过“人工智能高峰论坛”普及探讨人工智能,Alphabet执行董事长施密特发表了自己的看法。

施密特首先表示,非常喜欢来到中国,认为这里是互联网的中心。并且解释之所以进行AlphaGo和柯洁的比赛,是希望通过柯洁去看看AlphaGo的潜能,而从实际结果来看,差距也非常小。

施密特称,柯洁应该也借鉴了AlphaGo的技巧,所以明天的第二局比赛值得期待。

其后,这位Alphabet执行董事长谈到了自己对人工智能的看法。

首先是进展方面,他表示反映了创新速度之快。比如AlphaGo的进化,“我们之前只使用监督式学习就战胜了李世石,但现在我们已经可以熟练使用两种算法;以前,我们认为自然语言的相互翻译是不可能实现的事情,但现在我们只用很小的团队就实现了这个目标,这是个巨大的进步。”

除了AlphaGo,还有人工智能给谷歌翻译带来的进步。施密特坦承,一辈子都没想过,翻译可以被AI带来如此巨大的改变,语言与语言之间的转换在速度、准确性方面有质的提升。

其次,施密特最看好人工智能在医疗领域的应用和前景。

他明确表示,在医疗领域可以有很广泛应用,未来5年会带来巨大变化和提升,可能这种速度还难以想象,但大家可以回忆一下,iPhone和安卓仅出现十年,而现在很难想象离开手机如何生活。

施密特认为创新的速度可能还在加快,甚至是指数级的。比如神经网络和深度学习的出现,机器可以实现自我学习,开始加快迭代。

“以前如果程序最开始出错就很难办,现在借助摩尔定律机器变得快多了,机器学习可以自我学习帮助进步。之前我们尝试过很多方式,现在的技术如果在20年前的电脑上运行不了,现在有了第二代TPU等新设备的支持,可以让我们的算法得到很大提升。”

施密特也认为,之所以人工智能会在现在到来,除了算法,TPU方面的硬件支持也密不可分。

此后,施密特谈到了人工智能和人未来的关系,他不认为会造成大规模失业和威胁。

他表示未来AI的发展,可能的方式是人和人工智能的结合——机器更聪明,成为人有力的助手。比如一个化学家,可能没法穷尽所有的论文,但可以通过与一个相应的机器模型的对话、问问题,解决时间,提升科研能力。

至于人工智能可能造成的工作威胁和失业问题,施密特通过“抚养比”来举例,他说在中国日本等人口密集的国家,龄化和人口寿命变长都人每个人负担的“抚养”任务变得更重,但之所以经济还能持续发展,是自动化等带来的赋能。

第四,施密特谈到了Alphabet和谷歌正在进行的人工智能变革。

施密特表示,之所以成立Alphabet,就是希望把AI的技术和战略,应用到更多的领域。还通过GoogleX,会不断地推出一些各种各样领域的解决方案,比如在交通领域的无人驾驶。

不过他不认为谷歌这样的巨头会垄断创新,也不赞同目前“七大黑洞”的说法。

施密特称,他每年来到中国,都会和上百位创业者开发者见面,他觉得这些初创公司在智能时代从无到有,不断壮大,正是创新驱动的,而且在很多领域,很多公司正在壮大,比如智能交通领域的滴滴、Uber,比如在娱乐、医疗等领域,都有巨大的机会。

在竞争话题上,施密特也谈到了目前争夺人工智能话语权的竞争。他表示现在所有的巨头都在利用最适合自己的方式,去使用人工智能、建立通用语言。所以目前在人机交互、机机交互方面现在竞争也非常激烈,而且这样的竞争也肯定在中国发生。

最后,施密特还谈到了安全和隐私方面的看法。他表示安全在技术上不是问题,比如通过加密。但在隐私上,可能每个国家并不相同,还存在不小的挑战,比如医保数据等的存储和调用等,隐私政策在各个国家不尽相同。

当然,施密特还谈到了对年轻人的建议。

他表示如果自己是一个22岁的年轻人,首先会希望到DeepMind、TPU这样大的业务和方向中提升自己,接受挑战,然后利用学到的人工智能的技术,应用到更多实际方案和问题中。

“DeepMind给我的启示是,神经网络等不同领域科学家可以聚到一起,去实现强人工智能。人工智能开启美好未来。多年来我都在想,如果我年轻二三十岁会怎么做,我会加入DeepMind这样的公司。DeepMind在做的是万里长征第一步,而其后盈利的最重要一步,紧接着是在科研、医疗等多个领域通过TensorFlow来实现更大范围的推广。

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    2017-11-11 jiekemin
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    2017-11-09 yhy100200
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    2017-05-25 changjiu

    发展前景广阔

    0

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    2017-05-25 明心见性

    很好,学习了!谢谢分享

    0