Food security is a critically important issue in China and can be enhanced by implementing subsidy policies. This paper employs a partial equilibrium model which takes into account the impact mechanism of subsidy policies to simulate the impact of current subsidy policies on grain supply and demand and on enhancing grain self-sufficiency in China. The simulation results suggest that subsidies can generally promote grain production, reduce consumption, increase imports, reduce exports and increase ending stocks. Subsidies may also result in increases in grain self-sufficiency rate and stock-to-use ratio, but the increases are relatively small, indicating that the subsidies lack efficiency. Given that subsidies constitutes only a very small share of farmers' total income, and that significant scope remains for increasing subsidy levels in China, employing subsidy policies can help to enhance or at least maintain China's grain self-sufficiency at a high level. Various measures should be implemented to improve the inefficiency of the current subsidy system, such as (1) combining different types of subsidies; (2) providing discriminatory subsidies to poor/rich farmers or developing/developed areas; and (3) increasing subsidy rates for wheat and corn.
In this study, we used monthly corn price and hog price data from January 2000 to June 2015 to conduct an empirical analysis based on a smooth transition regression (STR) model. The analysis confirms and explains the asymmetric transmission mechanism and process of the smooth transformation of corn prices to hog prices and measures the mechanism conversion threshold. Using the smooth transformation mechanism and its threshold as its foundations, this study breaks up continuous smooth transfer price volatility transmission effects into completely linear, not completely linear, and nonlinear mechanism states. Based on these states, the influence of corn price on hog price fluctuation is attributed to cost-push inflation, risk stabilisation effects, and the coexistence of cost-push and risk-stabilisation effects from the perspective of adaptive expectations.
The study analyses the influence of technical barriers to agricultural trade carried out by Japan on China's fruit exports. In order to measure the tariff equivalents of technical barriers, the price wedge method is utilized. Based on the utility function specified in the study, the constructed model is adopted to evaluate the elasticity of substitution between the imported fruits and Japanese domestic fruits, and the consumers' preference parameters for different kinds of fruits. Sample data are chosen from the beginning of 2002 to the end of 2015. Based on the estimated preference parameters and elasticity of substitution, the results show that Japanese consumers prefer domestic fruits to the imported fruits. Besides, the results reveal that although the substitution and preference parameters are higher for the improved quality of imported fruits in the context of the positive list system, the scales of tariff equivalents of technical barriers are larger than the regular custom tariffs, and the technical barriers would cause extra huge costs for the imported fruits. Especially, in the three consecutive years after the implementation of the positive list system, tariff equivalents of technical barriers almost reached 150%, and then gradually decreased in the following years.
The aim of the study is to investigate and compare the correlation between energy consumption, air pollution and economic growth in China and the USA. Both countries are powerful economic countries in the world, thus we attempt to know whether energy consumption and air pollution vary as the economy develops. The data for the research spanning from 1970 to 2014 was gathered from an indicator of the World Bank. The time span was decided due to the data availability of both countries. To examine the long-run equilibrium relationship, there was performed the ARDL bound test. Results of unit root indicated that all the variables were integrated of order one. In the case of the ARDL bound test, the values of F-statistics exceeded the upper bound value, which means they are statistically significant. The estimation results substantiated the positive coefficient of energy consumption at the 1% significance level in China, implying that air pollution can increase as the energy consumption rises in China. However, the empirical results of the USA were exactly on the contrary. The outcomes of the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ tests revealed that all coefficients in both the short- and long-run models were stable. Based on the above analysis, the study suggests that China should adopt innovation and environmentally friendly modern technologies. Specifically, China ought to inspire and motivate energy saving and low-carbon research innovations, energy saving industries, green investment and carbon sequester technologies as well as public environmental awareness creations to mitigate environmental deterioration and climate change.
The use of fossil fuels raises serious environmental concerns and causes major adverse effects such as the ocean level rise and the increased occurrence of hurricanes. To alleviate such problems, a global movement towards the generation of renewable energy is considered to be an effective way to help reducing the global greenhouse gas emissions and to sustain social development. Bioenergy is one attractive renewable energy source in Taiwan because a substantial amount of cropland has been released after the participation in the World Trade Organization (WTO). This study proposes two dynamic agricultural sector models to analyse how changes in the land fertility affect agricultural activities and bioenergy development. The analytical result indicates that economic incentives such as the direct subsidy and tax credit can be used to maintain a desired fertility level. In addition, the objectives of bioenergy development must be defined in advance because changes in discount rates and planning horizons have considerable influences on the effectiveness of policies.
Agricultural growth is closely associated with sustainable economic development. This is especially true from the perspective of developing countries, such as India and Pakistan, where significant portions of the labour force are dependent on agriculture for their livelihood. This study analysed the impact of macroeconomic policy (i.e. monetary policy) on employment, food inflation, and agricultural growth by analysing to what extent monetary policy is effective in controlling food price inflation, the effect of contractionary monetary policy on the agricultural sector's employment and productivity, and the extent of monetary policy transmission to money market rates and 10-year interest rates. We did so by applying a factor-augmented vector autoregressive model proposed by Bernanke et al. (2005) to agricultural data from 1995 and 1996 to 2016 for India and Pakistan, respectively. We found that tight monetary policy significantly reduced food inflation and agricultural production while increasing the rural unemployment rate. Short-term and 10-year interest rates increased owing to the contractionary monetary policies pursued by both countries. An inclusive monetary policy whereby policymakers work alongside governments to achieve price stabilisation and reasonable employment rates is recommended.
This paper examines whether there are multiple explosive bubble episodes in international food market by employing the Generalised Supremum Augmented Dickey-Fuller (GSADF) test. This method is particularly suitable for practical application of time series and provides an innovative consistent date-stamping strategy for the origination and termination of bubble episodes. Our results show that there are four explosive bubble episodes mostly accompanied by huge price volatilities during 1990-2017, which is largely in line with the asset pricing model (Gurkaynak 2008). The exuberance and collapse of bubble episodes can be explained by imbalance between supply and demand, depreciation of U.S. dollar, financial crisis and speculation. Our findings also provide supporting evidence for the Masters hypothesis that tremendous buying pressure from index investments contributes to substantial bubble episodes. The authorities should accurately identify bubble episode and monitor its evolving process, which is propitious to achieve the effective stabilisation of global food system. Particularly, restrictions on excessive speculative trading should be arranged under extreme market situations in order to forestall the explosion of multiple food bubbles.
Short-term forecasting of hog price, which forms the basis for the decision making, is challenging and of great interest for hog producers and market participants. This study develops improved ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD)-based hybrid approach for the short-term hog price forecasting. Specifically, the EEMD is first used to decompose the original hog price series into several intrinsic-mode functions (IMF) and one residue. The fine-to-coarse reconstruction algorithm is then applied to compose the obtained IMFs and residue into the high-frequency fluctuation, the low-frequency fluctuation, and the trend terms which can highlight new features of the hog price fluctuations. Afterwards, the extreme learning machine (ELM) is employed to model the low-frequency fluctuation, while the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) and the polynomial function are used to fit the high-frequency fluctuation and trend term, respectively, in a multistep-ahead fashion. The commonly used iterated prediction strategy is adopted for the implementation of the multistep-ahead forecasting. The monthly hog price series from January 2000 to May 2015 in China is employed to evaluate the forecasting performance of the proposed approach with the selected counterparts. The numerical results indicate that the improved EEMD-based hybrid approach is a promising alternative for the short-term hog price forecasting.
The paper utilizes the data envelopment analysis (DEA) method based on the OECD policy classification to evaluate the performance of the agricultural support policy at the provincial and agricultural commodity levels from the respective viewpoints of agricultural input and output. The analysis at the provincial level mainly focuses on the similarities and differences in the performance of the agricultural support policies between the primary grain-producing areas and the secondary grain-producing areas; at the agricultural commodity level, 17 representative Chinese agricultural commodities are selected and their performance compared. The results are then used to proffer suggestions for the future agricultural support policy optimization in China. The paper found that 50% of the provinces were DEA-efficient, in general, during the study period due to the low overall province-level scale efficiency. The performance values of the secondary grain-producing areas were significantly lower than those of the primary grain-producing areas due to the overall low scale and technical efficiency values. These results show that the support policies for agricultural commodities in China altogether require a further improvement, mainly due to the low technical efficiency of agricultural commodities.
Farm marketing has been recognized as an important factor for a successful farm business. Due to the increasing interest of consumers in food safety, direct marketing of farm products to consumers in the local farmers' markets has become very popular. Compared to traditional farm marketing channels, relatively little is known about the use of direct-to-consumer marketing strategies by farmers. This paper aims to provide a more comprehensive picture of farmers' choices among available farm marketing channels using the case study of Taiwan. Using a population-based survey of 5600 family farms in Taiwan in 2014, in this study we quantify the extent to which demographic characteristics of farm operators, farm production and family conditions may influence the decision of farms to sell farm products to the government, wholesale markets, and in direct-to-consumer sales. We develop a trivariate probit model, and our results indicate that education level and engagement in the off-farm labour market of farm operators, the number of household members, farm size, land ownership, and the type of farm are the key factors in determining farmers' choice of marketing channels. The findings of this study may have important implications for the design of more effective farm marketing programs by agricultural authorities.
In the past decade, China has more than doubled its consumption of fossil fuels resulting in the emission of substantial amounts of carbon dioxide (CO2), which are considered to be the main cause of climate change. To mitigate climate change and ensure the continued survival of life on earth, the current level of CO2R emissions must be cut. This study establishes a price endogenous mathematical programming (Jiangxi Agricultural Sector Model) and incorporates bioenergy technologies such as ethanol, conventional co-firing and pyrolysis to examine how an agricultural province may contribute to bioenergy development and carbon sequestration. The results indicate that under moderate energy and greenhouse gas (GHG) prices, net electricity generation reaches 6.5 billion kWh annually. Net emission reduction is affected by market operations. At high GHG prices, pyrolysis and biochar application can sequester up to 4.74 million tons of CO2R emissions annually. However, this measure fluctuates significantly when GHG prices vary. Our study shows that pyrolysis and biochar application provide significant environmental effects in terms of carbon sequestration.
This paper develops the theory of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in the food industry. The effects of CSR on the food industry are captured. First, we argue that CSR reduces the profits of a CSR firm under monopoly. Second, under complete information, regulation does not improve social welfare. We find that both active price regulation and active quality regulation reduce a monopolist's profits, consumer surplus and social welfare. Finally, under incomplete information, the monopolist exaggerates quality as much as possible. With quality regulation, CSR reduces exaggerated quality in the food industry.