J Clin Oncol:预测早期乳腺癌老年患者化疗毒性的风险模型

2021-01-28 MedSci原创 MedSci原创

约一半的乳腺癌患者在确诊时年龄在65岁及以上,而且老年人群的乳腺癌负担还在不断增加。然而,目前预测老年早期乳腺癌患者化疗毒性风险的工具有限。

约一半的乳腺癌患者在确诊时年龄≥65岁,而且老年人群的乳腺癌负担还在不断增加。然而,目前预测老年早期乳腺癌患者化疗毒性风险的工具有限。

Allison等人对在16家机构接受新辅助化疗或辅助化疗的≥65岁I-Ⅲ期乳腺癌患者进行前瞻性研究,分析预测3-5级化疗毒性的老年和临床特征。采用Logistic回归来识别毒性的独立预测因素,并将其纳入加权变量评分的模型中。使用ROC曲线下面积(AUC)和拟合优度统计对模型性能进行评估。该模型经过了内外部的验证。

在473名患者中(开发队列283名,验证队列190名),46%的患者出现了3-5级化疗毒性。确定了8个独立的预测因素(每个因素的加权分数):蒽环类药物使用(1分)、II或III期(3分)、计划疗程>3个月(4分)、肝功能异常(3分)、低血红蛋白(3分)、跌倒(4分)、行走受限(3分)和缺乏社会支持(3分)

预测的3-5级化疗毒性风险

研究人员计算了每个患者的风险评分,并定义了三个风险组:低风险组(0-5分)、中风险组(6-11分)或高风险组(≥12分)。在开发队列中,这三组3-5级化疗毒性的发生率分别为19%、54%和87%(p<0.01)。在验证队列中,三组的毒性发生率分别为27%、45%和76%

CARG-BC评分与发生了3-5级化疗毒性

开发队列的AUC为0.75(95%CI,0.70~0.81),验证队列的AUC为0.69(95%CI,0.62~0.77)。风险组还与住院和剂量强度降低的发生率相关(p<0.01)。

总之,现已开发出了“癌症和老龄化研究组-乳腺癌(CARG-BC)评分”,而且通过了验证,该评分模型可以预测早期乳腺癌老年患者化疗时发生3-5级化疗毒性的风险

原始出处:

Magnuson Allison,Sedrak Mina S,Gross Cary P et al. Development and Validation of a Risk Tool for Predicting Severe Toxicity in Older Adults Receiving Chemotherapy for Early-Stage Breast Cancer. J Clin Oncol, 2021, undefined: JCO2002063.

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    2021-07-28 minlingfeng
  2. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1865993, encodeId=29821865993cd, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=16ce133504e' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Oncol#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=13350, encryptionId=16ce133504e, topicName=Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=b63894, createdName=minlingfeng, createdTime=Wed Jul 28 00:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-07-28, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=961841, encodeId=6fab961841e5, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=11cf104251a3' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#J Clin Oncol#</a>点击查看更多该期刊内容, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=54, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=104251, encryptionId=11cf104251a3, topicName=J Clin Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20221103/2796e00c9b4549e3b313ed9e7accc68f/b52d6d98bbe04782b5a4e2dd1ee80be2.jpeg, createdBy=078e1614372, createdName=MedSciZeng, createdTime=Fri Apr 30 17:16:11 CST 2021, time=2021-04-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1457399, encodeId=2dfe145e39996, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=36ea100885d0' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#风险模型#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=42, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=100885, encryptionId=36ea100885d0, topicName=风险模型)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=18b75898745, createdName=wjywjy, createdTime=Sat Jan 30 05:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1038195, encodeId=570c103819598, content=谢谢梅斯分享这么多精彩信息, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=55, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=anti-cancer, createdTime=Thu Jan 28 17:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-28, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047886, encodeId=64b2104e8866d, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=45, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Thu Jan 28 17:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-28, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2021-04-30 MedSciZeng

    #J Clin Oncol#点击查看更多该期刊内容

    0

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  4. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1865993, encodeId=29821865993cd, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=16ce133504e' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Oncol#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=13350, encryptionId=16ce133504e, topicName=Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=b63894, createdName=minlingfeng, createdTime=Wed Jul 28 00:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-07-28, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=961841, encodeId=6fab961841e5, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=11cf104251a3' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#J Clin Oncol#</a>点击查看更多该期刊内容, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=54, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=104251, encryptionId=11cf104251a3, topicName=J Clin Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20221103/2796e00c9b4549e3b313ed9e7accc68f/b52d6d98bbe04782b5a4e2dd1ee80be2.jpeg, createdBy=078e1614372, createdName=MedSciZeng, createdTime=Fri Apr 30 17:16:11 CST 2021, time=2021-04-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1457399, encodeId=2dfe145e39996, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=36ea100885d0' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#风险模型#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=42, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=100885, encryptionId=36ea100885d0, topicName=风险模型)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=18b75898745, createdName=wjywjy, createdTime=Sat Jan 30 05:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1038195, encodeId=570c103819598, content=谢谢梅斯分享这么多精彩信息, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=55, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=anti-cancer, createdTime=Thu Jan 28 17:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-28, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047886, encodeId=64b2104e8866d, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=45, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Thu Jan 28 17:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-28, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2021-01-28 anti-cancer

    谢谢梅斯分享这么多精彩信息

    0

  5. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1865993, encodeId=29821865993cd, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=16ce133504e' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Oncol#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=13350, encryptionId=16ce133504e, topicName=Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=b63894, createdName=minlingfeng, createdTime=Wed Jul 28 00:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-07-28, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=961841, encodeId=6fab961841e5, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=11cf104251a3' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#J Clin Oncol#</a>点击查看更多该期刊内容, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=54, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=104251, encryptionId=11cf104251a3, topicName=J Clin Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20221103/2796e00c9b4549e3b313ed9e7accc68f/b52d6d98bbe04782b5a4e2dd1ee80be2.jpeg, createdBy=078e1614372, createdName=MedSciZeng, createdTime=Fri Apr 30 17:16:11 CST 2021, time=2021-04-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1457399, encodeId=2dfe145e39996, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=36ea100885d0' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#风险模型#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=42, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=100885, encryptionId=36ea100885d0, topicName=风险模型)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=18b75898745, createdName=wjywjy, createdTime=Sat Jan 30 05:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1038195, encodeId=570c103819598, content=谢谢梅斯分享这么多精彩信息, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=55, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=anti-cancer, createdTime=Thu Jan 28 17:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-28, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047886, encodeId=64b2104e8866d, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=45, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Thu Jan 28 17:39:09 CST 2021, time=2021-01-28, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2021-01-28 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

    0

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