NATURE:我国研究人员对武汉新冠传播进行全面动态重构 

2020-07-19 MedSci原创 MedSci原创

研究人员进一步探讨了14天无确诊感染后解除所有干预措施后的复发概率,根据87%和53%无确诊感染的模型分别估计为0.32和0.06,凸显了无确诊病例在改变干预策略时带来的风险。

随着世界各国审查遏制COVID-19大流行的干预措施,通过研究中国武汉SARS-CoV-2的全面传播动态可以得出重要的经验教训。

在武汉,大力的非药物干预抑制了当地COVID-19的爆发。

最近,来自武汉华中科技大学和哈佛大学的研究人员合作,基于32,583例实验室确诊病例的事件和干预措施所标志的五个时期,使用一种建模方法来重建2020年1月1日至2020年3月8日之间的COVID-19的全谱动态。

考虑到症状前的传染性、时间变化的确诊率、传播率和人口流动,研究人员确定了疫情的两个关键特征:高覆盖性和高传播性。

研究人员估计,3月8日前87%(下限53%)的感染者未被确诊,可能包括无症状和轻度症状的病例;疫情爆发初期的基本复制数R0为3.54(95%可信区间[CrI]:3.40-3.67),远高于SARS和MERS。

研究人员观察到,多管齐下的干预措施对控制疫情有相当大的积极作用,将繁殖数降低到0.28(0.23-0.33),通过推算,截至3月8日,武汉市的感染总数减少了96.0%。

研究人员进一步探讨了14天无确诊感染后解除所有干预措施后的复发概率,根据87%和53%无确诊感染的模型分别估计为0.32和0.06,凸显了无确诊病例在改变干预策略时带来的风险。

这些结果为继续开展监测和干预,最终遏制COVID-19的爆发提供了重要意义。

 

原始出处:

Xingjie Hao et al. Reconstruction of the full transmission dynamics of COVID-19 in Wuhan, NATURE (2020).

 

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    2021-02-06 liye789132251
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    2020-08-27 14818eb4m67暂无昵称

    学习了

    0

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    2020-07-19 wangzheng00

    学习

    0

  5. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1884466, encodeId=a88b18844669b, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=3b2112532d8' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Nat#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=31, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=12532, encryptionId=3b2112532d8, topicName=Nat)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=2e6f107, createdName=liye789132251, createdTime=Sat Feb 06 21:33:29 CST 2021, time=2021-02-06, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1907618, encodeId=0394190e6186c, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=379fe3364c9' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#研究人员#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=38, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=73364, encryptionId=379fe3364c9, topicName=研究人员)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=db5b227, createdName=gostraight, createdTime=Mon Oct 05 01:33:29 CST 2020, time=2020-10-05, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=813807, encodeId=9b8a81380eff, content=学习了, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=72, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=64245268311, createdName=14818eb4m67暂无昵称, createdTime=Thu Aug 27 08:21:52 CST 2020, time=2020-08-27, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803303, encodeId=2868803303c4, content=学习, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=86, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=http://thirdwx.qlogo.cn/mmopen/vi_32/Q0j4TwGTfTJp0sD8Z3gbQpmzBtwg9CW7YicibuHSzMIfhBANYvGZiaEcH2gk0IrjXgRzR231rEUtXkHIBBbvbe6Zw/132, createdBy=80725261937, createdName=wangzheng00, createdTime=Sun Jul 19 14:52:36 CST 2020, time=2020-07-19, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1028310, encodeId=87601028310ce, content=新冠肺炎,疫情何时才能消失, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=39, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=公卫新人, createdTime=Sun Jul 19 14:33:29 CST 2020, time=2020-07-19, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2020-07-19 公卫新人

    新冠肺炎,疫情何时才能消失

    0

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