疾病风险预测模型稳定性评估:5种常用的交叉验证技术来护航

2020-10-31 MedSci原创 MedSci原创

问题描述:

问题描述:如何在一些模型中选择一个最好的模型;避免数据浪费; 举例说明 1 多项式回归模型中,我们知道模型越复杂即m越高,拟合效果越好。但是未必是一个好的分类模型,因为模型过拟合了。那么如何确定m的值呢。 2 locally weighted regression中,τ值得确定。 3 SVM中参数C的确定。 交叉验证就是很好的用于这些问题,这些模型中参数寻优的问题。 模型的稳定性? 总是需要验证你的机器学习模型的稳定性。换句话说,你不能把这个模型与你的训练数据相匹配,并预测它的未来日期,然后希望它每次都能准确地给出结果。我之所以强调这一点是因为每次模型预测未来的日期,它都是基于看不见的数据,这些数据可能与训练数据不同。如果训练模型不能从你的训练数据中捕捉趋势,那么它可能会在测试集上过度拟合或不拟合。换句话说,可能会有高的方差或偏差。 让我们通过一个例子来进一步了解模型的稳定性。 在这个例子中,我们试图找出一个人购买汽车与否的关系,这取决于他的收入。为此,我们采取了以下步骤: 我们用一个线性方程建立了买车与否和个人收入之间的关系。假设你有2010年到2019年的数据,并试图预测2020年

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    2020-12-21 Wlgank

    好难,看不懂,学习中!

    0

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    2020-10-31 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

    0

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    2020-10-31 lovetcm

    #疾病风险模型#的稳定性,采用#交叉验证#方法,连#Python#代码都有了

    0

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BMJ:住院患者早期不良预后风险预测模型研究

住院患者预警评分是一种广泛使用的预测模型,在日常临床实践中常用于识别住院患者的早期临床恶化,但目前,大部分模型存在较为明显的缺点,特别需注意在模型的推导和验证过程中方法的科学性