Lancet Infect Dis:新冠肺炎家庭二次传播风险评估

2020-06-18 MedSci原创 MedSci原创

与非典病毒和中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒相比,新冠肺炎病毒的家庭传播能力更强,60岁以上老年人最易感染受到家庭传播。除发现和隔离病例外,还应及时对密切接触者进行追踪和隔离,防止病毒在潜伏期内继续传

截至2020年6月8日,全球报告的COVID-19病例已超过700万,死亡人数超过40万。近日研究人员采用统计传播模型,对广州市家庭与非家庭密切接触者SARS-CoV-2的二次发病率进行了评估。
 
本次研究为回顾性队列研究,使用了广州市疾病预防控制中心的新冠肺炎接触追踪数据库数据,估计家庭和非家庭接触者中COVID-19的发病率(定义为感染者将疾病传播给易感者的概率)。在分析中,研究人员考虑了两种不同的家庭接触定义:一种是家庭成员,另一种是近亲,如父母和岳父岳母,不考虑居住地址;另一种是住在同一地址,不考虑关系。研究人员评估了COVID-19病例在潜伏期内传播性和传染性的人口决定因素。
 
在2020年1月7日至2020年2月18日期间,研究人员追踪了195个不相关的亲密接触群体(215个初始病例、134个二级或三级病例和1964个未受感染的亲密接触者)。通过从这些组中确定家庭,假设平均潜伏期为5天,最长感染期为13天,并且没有病例隔离,当根据近亲定义家庭接触者时,家庭接触者的二次发病率为12.4%;当根据居住地址定义家庭联系人时为17.1%。与最大年龄组(60岁以上)相比,最小年龄组(<20岁; OR:0.23)和20-59岁成年人(OR:0.64)的家庭感染风险较低。本结果表明新冠肺炎潜伏期的传染性比症状期强,尽管差异不具有统计学意义(OR:0.61)。根据观察到的原发病例接触频率,估计广州地区的R0为0.5。如果没有隔离病例或接触者,当根据近亲定义家庭时,预测的本地R0为0.6。
 
研究发现,与非典病毒和中东呼吸综合征冠状病毒相比,新冠肺炎病毒的家庭传播能力更强,60岁以上老年人最易感染受到家庭传播。除发现和隔离病例外,还应及时对密切接触者进行追踪和隔离,防止病毒在潜伏期内继续传播。
 
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    2020-09-20 howi
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    2020-08-27 14818eb4m67暂无昵称

    学习了

    0

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    2020-06-18 公卫新人

    新冠肺炎,疫情何时才能消失

    0

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    2020-06-18 goodbing

    顶刊就是不一样,质量很高,内容精彩!学到很多

    0

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