BMJ:住院患者早期不良预后风险预测模型研究

2020-05-22 MedSci原创 MedSci原创

住院患者预警评分是一种广泛使用的预测模型,在日常临床实践中常用于识别住院患者的早期临床恶化,但目前,大部分模型存在较为明显的缺点,特别需注意在模型的推导和验证过程中方法的科学性

近日研究人员开展系统综述及荟萃分析,考察了住院患者不良预后的早期预警评分系统的效果。
 
研究收集截至2019年6月的相关研究数据,涉及成人医院住院患者预警评分的开发或外部验证研究。
 
研究收录95篇相关研究,其中11个研究仅进行了模型开发,23个研究进行了开发及外部验证,61个研究仅进行外部验证,大部分研究在美国(38%)和英国(29%)开展。最常见的预测指标为呼吸频率(88%)、心率(83%)、氧饱和度-体温以及动脉压(71%),而年龄(38%)和性别(9%)的研究较少。在模型开发和外部验证研究中,小样本和事件患者数量不足较为常见的。19项研究中进行了内部验证,但很少使用推荐方法,如引导或交叉验证(22%),所有研究都具有较高的偏倚风险。
 
研究认为,住院患者预警评分是一种广泛使用的预测模型,在日常临床实践中常用于识别住院患者的早期临床恶化,但目前,大部分模型存在较为明显的缺点,特别需注意在模型的推导和验证过程中方法的科学性。
 
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    2021-01-20 Wlgank

    学习

    0

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    2021-04-10 gaoxiaoe
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    2020-05-22 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

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