JACC:一种可预测10年心衰风险模型的开发

2019-05-18 不详 MedSci原创

目前尚无心衰的一级预防策略,且缺少心衰的风险预测工具。本研究的目的旨在推导出发展为心衰的10年风险方程。本研究纳入了1985-2000年30-79岁的无心血管疾病的参与者作为合并队列(PC),随机分为两组进行推导和内部验证,并在2个另外的队列中对模型方程进行验证。最终共有11771名对象纳入PC,女性占58%,黑种人占22%,平均年龄52±12岁,有1339名患有心衰。心衰风险的预测模型中包括年龄

目前尚无心衰的一级预防策略,且缺少心衰的风险预测工具。本研究的目的旨在推导出发展为心衰的10年风险方程。

本研究纳入了1985-2000年30-79岁的无血管疾病的参与者作为合并队列(PC),随机分为两组进行推导和内部验证,并在2个另外的队列中对模型方程进行验证。最终共有11771名对象纳入PC,女性占58%,黑种人占22%,平均年龄52±12岁,有1339名患有心衰。心衰风险的预测模型中包括年龄、血压、空腹血糖值、体重指数、胆固醇、抽烟状态和QRS时间。预防心衰模型的PC方程在内外验证队列中具有很好的识别性和很强的校正能力。另外,本研究开发了一种基于Web的工具,以便于临床应用该工具。

本研究基于33010名个体开发了一种预测10年心衰风险的方程,该工具可用于确定哪些人值得进行强化筛选或有针对性的预防策略。

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    2019-12-21 hbwxf
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    2019-05-18 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

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