Lancet Global Health:接触追踪和病例隔离控制COVID-19 疫情效果研究

2020-03-02 MedSci MedSci原创

在大多数情况下,高效的接触追踪和病例隔离足以在3个月内控制COVID-19的新爆发。症状开始到隔离的时间越长,接触追踪确定的病例越少以及症状前传播的增加不利于控制疾病爆发

病例隔离和接触追踪可有效控制传染病的爆发和传播,而病原体的特性和反应是这一策略成效的重要因素。近日研究人员评估了隔离和接触追踪策略对控制2019年冠状病毒肺炎(COVID-19)输入病例传播的效果。

研究人员通过随机传播模型评估COVID-19爆发模式,量化了接触追踪和隔离病例在控制严重急性呼吸综合征冠状病毒2(SARS-CoV-2)样病原体方面的潜在有效性。研究人员考虑了初始病例数、基本传播数(R0)、从症状发作到隔离的延迟、接触被追踪概率、症状发作前发生传播比例以及亚临床感染比例等不同的情况。。如果在12周内或在总共5000例病例之前结束传播,则认为疫情得到控制。

模型研究假设基线存在5个初始病例,R0为1.5,即使接触追踪概率较低,也能控制0%的症状发作前传播;然而,当R0为2.5或3.5时,随着初始病例数和发病前传播次数的增加,控制暴发的概率降低。在不同的初始病例数中,R0为1.5的大多数情况是可控的,即使成功跟踪的概率不到50%,对于R0 大于2.5时,病例追踪概率需在70%以上,对于R0  为3.5时,追踪率必须在90%以上。当R0为1.5时,症状发生和隔离之间的延迟对疾病的可控起着最大的作用。对于R0值为2.5或3.5时, 40例初始病例的情况下,只有在症状出现前少于1%的传播,接触追踪和隔离才是潜在有效的方案。

在大多数情况下,高效的接触追踪和病例隔离足以在3个月内控制COVID-19的新爆发。症状开始到隔离的时间越长,接触追踪确定的病例越少以及症状前传播的增加不利于控制疾病爆发。

原始出处:

Joel Hellewell et al. Feasibility of controlling COVID-19 outbreaks by isolation of cases and contacts.Lancet Global Health. February 28 2020.

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    2020-12-27 shizhenshan
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    2020-07-20 xuyu
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    2020-12-22 howi
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  6. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1861363, encodeId=4d0d1861363cf, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=401a23e102' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#ALT#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=30, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=2371, encryptionId=401a23e102, topicName=ALT)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=ccbd84, createdName=shizhenshan, createdTime=Sun Dec 27 04:56:00 CST 2020, time=2020-12-27, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1969751, encodeId=23df1969e51b7, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=1e8fe078831' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#病例隔离#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=33, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=70788, encryptionId=1e8fe078831, topicName=病例隔离)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=8f5b299, createdName=xuyu, createdTime=Mon Jul 20 13:56:00 CST 2020, time=2020-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1830501, encodeId=e1a3183050126, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=1b6210686b2' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Lancet#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=28, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=10686, encryptionId=1b6210686b2, topicName=Lancet)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=3f0227, createdName=howi, createdTime=Tue Dec 22 01:56:00 CST 2020, time=2020-12-22, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=2019233, encodeId=bad82019233f7, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=ae9b56e114c' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#接触追踪#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=30, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=56711, encryptionId=ae9b56e114c, topicName=接触追踪)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=ef33504, createdName=wsusan1966, createdTime=Mon Dec 14 16:56:00 CST 2020, time=2020-12-14, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1621837, encodeId=b965162183eee, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=5f1386329e' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Health#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=26, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=8632, encryptionId=5f1386329e, topicName=Health)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=8d2020283215, createdName=yyanpro@28cn.c, createdTime=Wed Mar 04 09:56:00 CST 2020, time=2020-03-04, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047005, encodeId=f806104e005db, content=疗效只是效果的众多方面之一,还要看对患者的获益,包括生活质量等因素共同决定效果的, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=44, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Mon Mar 02 21:56:00 CST 2020, time=2020-03-02, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2020-03-02 CHANGE

    疗效只是效果的众多方面之一,还要看对患者的获益,包括生活质量等因素共同决定效果的

    0

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