Lancet:2017-2100年全球生育率和人口预测,预计中国人口或将减少48%

2020-07-17 佚名 医咖会

近日,Lancet刊登了一项预测性分析的结果,基于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2017的数据,使用队列要素预测法,预测了195个国家和地区2018年到2100年的人口数量。

近日,Lancet刊登了一项预测性分析的结果,基于全球疾病负担研究(GBD)2017的数据,使用队列要素预测法,预测了195个国家和地区2018年到2100年的人口数量。研究制定了参考情景(reference scenario)和其他四种场景下的预测情况,反映不同速度的变化轨迹。

预期寿命预测

研究绘制了不同场景下的全球预期寿命演变图(图1)。预期寿命预计会增加,但增加速度可能会逐步放缓。2100年,各国的预期寿命仍存在不平衡的现象,从69.4岁到88.9岁不等(参考场景下)。据预测,2100年,仍有10个国家的预期寿命低于75岁,其中7个国家在撒哈拉以南非洲。

图1. 1990-2100年全球预测寿命预测

全球生育率预测

研究结果显示,在参考场景下,全球总生育率(total fertility rate, TFR,指该国家或地区的女性在育龄期间,每个女性平均的生育子女数)不断下降,到2100年为1.66(95%UI 1.33-2.08)(图2)。

 

图2. 1990-2100年总生育率情况

 

图3. 不同地区出现生育率达不到世代更替水平的年份

全球人口情况

结合死亡率、生育率和移民等情况,研究预测在参考场景下,全球人口在2064年将达到峰值,为97.3亿(95%UI 88.4-109),2100年下降到87.9亿(68.3-118)(图5)。在不同场景的预测中,2100年的人口数从136亿到62.9亿不等。在参考场景下,预测2100年人口最多的5个国家是:印度(10.9亿),尼日利亚(7.91亿),中国(7.32亿),美国(3.36亿),巴基斯坦(2.48亿)。

研究预测2100年,65岁以上的老年人有23.7亿,而20岁以下的人口只有17亿。预计5岁以下儿童的数量从2017年的6.81亿下降到2100年的4.01亿,降幅为41.0%。而与此同时,80岁以上的人口,预计将从2017年的1.41亿上升到2100年的8.66亿。

在参考场景下,2017年到2100年,包括日本、泰国和西班牙在内的23个国家,预计人口下降幅度将超过50%;预计中国人口减少48.0%(-6.1 to 68.4)。

图4. 1990-2100年的全球人口趋势

 

图5. 2017年和2100年全球人口的年龄结构

原始出处:Stein Emil Vollset, Emily Goren, Chun-Wei Yuan, et al. Fertility, mortality, migration, and population scenarios for 195 countries and territories from 2017 to 2100: a forecasting analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study. Lancet. July 14, 2020

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  1. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803104, encodeId=a023803104e2, content=还好,人口最多还没来的时候,自己也就去世了, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=90, replyNumber=1, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=68715401071, createdName=ms3000001659772677, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 11:33:59 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1830743, encodeId=07df1830e43be, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=1b6210686b2' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Lancet#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=30, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=10686, encryptionId=1b6210686b2, topicName=Lancet)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=3f0227, createdName=howi, createdTime=Sat Aug 01 06:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-08-01, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1371388, encodeId=f80413e138856, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=79a7695819a' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#生育率#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=29, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=69581, encryptionId=79a7695819a, topicName=生育率)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=1d01326, createdName=lizhou0204, createdTime=Sat Jul 18 15:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-07-18, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803065, encodeId=d0a9803065fe, content=房子没人要了, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=100, replyNumber=2, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=4b972455532, createdName=1240394fm61暂无昵称, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 07:24:49 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803089, encodeId=a5c58030893a, content=2017年到2100年,包括日本、泰国和西班牙在内的23个国家,预计人口下降幅度将超过50%;预计中国人口减少48.0%(-6.1 to 68.4)<a href='/topic/show?id=d07124e358f' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#人口扩张#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=89, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=24735, encryptionId=d07124e358f, topicName=人口扩张)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20200529/3611e9bb629c4e5b81fbd8ce784b06cc/128487eae357460bb98f67d86230c218.jpg, createdBy=ab235268530, createdName=神盾医疗局局长Jack, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 09:39:36 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1033887, encodeId=3157103388e35, content=顶刊就是不一样,质量很高,内容精彩!学到很多, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=51, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=goodbing, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 03:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2020-07-17 ms3000001659772677

    还好,人口最多还没来的时候,自己也就去世了

    1

    展开1条回复
  2. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803104, encodeId=a023803104e2, content=还好,人口最多还没来的时候,自己也就去世了, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=90, replyNumber=1, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=68715401071, createdName=ms3000001659772677, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 11:33:59 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1830743, encodeId=07df1830e43be, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=1b6210686b2' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Lancet#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=30, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=10686, encryptionId=1b6210686b2, topicName=Lancet)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=3f0227, createdName=howi, createdTime=Sat Aug 01 06:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-08-01, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1371388, encodeId=f80413e138856, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=79a7695819a' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#生育率#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=29, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=69581, encryptionId=79a7695819a, topicName=生育率)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=1d01326, createdName=lizhou0204, createdTime=Sat Jul 18 15:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-07-18, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803065, encodeId=d0a9803065fe, content=房子没人要了, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=100, replyNumber=2, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=4b972455532, createdName=1240394fm61暂无昵称, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 07:24:49 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803089, encodeId=a5c58030893a, content=2017年到2100年,包括日本、泰国和西班牙在内的23个国家,预计人口下降幅度将超过50%;预计中国人口减少48.0%(-6.1 to 68.4)<a href='/topic/show?id=d07124e358f' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#人口扩张#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=89, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=24735, encryptionId=d07124e358f, topicName=人口扩张)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20200529/3611e9bb629c4e5b81fbd8ce784b06cc/128487eae357460bb98f67d86230c218.jpg, createdBy=ab235268530, createdName=神盾医疗局局长Jack, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 09:39:36 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1033887, encodeId=3157103388e35, content=顶刊就是不一样,质量很高,内容精彩!学到很多, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=51, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=goodbing, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 03:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2020-08-01 howi
  3. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803104, encodeId=a023803104e2, content=还好,人口最多还没来的时候,自己也就去世了, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=90, replyNumber=1, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=68715401071, createdName=ms3000001659772677, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 11:33:59 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1830743, encodeId=07df1830e43be, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=1b6210686b2' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Lancet#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=30, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=10686, encryptionId=1b6210686b2, topicName=Lancet)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=3f0227, createdName=howi, createdTime=Sat Aug 01 06:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-08-01, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1371388, encodeId=f80413e138856, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=79a7695819a' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#生育率#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=29, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=69581, encryptionId=79a7695819a, topicName=生育率)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=1d01326, createdName=lizhou0204, createdTime=Sat Jul 18 15:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-07-18, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803065, encodeId=d0a9803065fe, content=房子没人要了, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=100, replyNumber=2, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=4b972455532, createdName=1240394fm61暂无昵称, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 07:24:49 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=803089, encodeId=a5c58030893a, content=2017年到2100年,包括日本、泰国和西班牙在内的23个国家,预计人口下降幅度将超过50%;预计中国人口减少48.0%(-6.1 to 68.4)<a href='/topic/show?id=d07124e358f' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#人口扩张#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=89, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=24735, encryptionId=d07124e358f, topicName=人口扩张)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20200529/3611e9bb629c4e5b81fbd8ce784b06cc/128487eae357460bb98f67d86230c218.jpg, createdBy=ab235268530, createdName=神盾医疗局局长Jack, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 09:39:36 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1033887, encodeId=3157103388e35, content=顶刊就是不一样,质量很高,内容精彩!学到很多, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=51, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=goodbing, createdTime=Fri Jul 17 03:40:00 CST 2020, time=2020-07-17, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
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    2020-07-17 1240394fm61暂无昵称

    房子没人要了

    2

    展开2条回复
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    2020-07-17 神盾医疗局局长Jack

    2017年到2100年,包括日本、泰国和西班牙在内的23个国家,预计人口下降幅度将超过50%;预计中国人口减少48.0%(-6.1 to 68.4)#人口扩张#

    0

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    2020-07-17 goodbing

    顶刊就是不一样,质量很高,内容精彩!学到很多

    0

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