J Clin Oncol:薄型(T1)黑色素瘤患者局部、区域和远处复发预测的新模型

2021-02-24 Nebula MedSci原创

虽然大多数薄型黑色素瘤患者的预后良好,但也有部分患者会复发

虽然原发性薄型皮肤黑色素瘤(T1,≤1.0 mm)患者预后良好,但也有部分患者会复发。Mary-Ann等研究人员尝试开发一个预测薄型黑色素瘤患者复发风险的模型,并进行验证。

本研究包含两个队列的队列,即开发队列(n=25930,荷兰人群)和验证队列(n=2968,澳大利亚黑色素瘤患者)。研究人员建立了局部、区域和远处无复发生存率(RFS)的多变量Cox模型,使用Harrell's C-统计量对每个结果进行辨别评估。使用将低风险组和高风险组分别定义为诺模图风险分数的最低和最高5%的校准曲线图来评估每个诺模图的表现。将诺模图的C统计量与包括当前美国癌症分期联合委员会参数(T分期和前哨淋巴结状态)的模型的C统计量进行比较。

开发队列患者中位随访时间为6.7年,期间发生了209例(0.8%)局部复发、503例(1.9%)区域复发和203例(0.8%)远处复发。验证队列患者中位随访了12.0年,发生了23例(0.8%)局部复发、61例(2.1%)区域复发和75例(2.5%)远处复发。

局部、区域和远处无复发生存率(RFS)的10年校准图和接受者工作特征曲线

在发展模型中,局部RFS、区域RFS和远处RFS的C-统计量分别为0.79(95%CI 0.75~0.82)、0.77(95%CI 0.75~0.78)和0.80(95%CI 0.77~0.83)。在外部验证中,三者的C-统计量分别为0.80(95%CI 0.69~0.90)、0.76(95%CI 0.70~0.82)和0.74(95%CI 0.69~0.80)。校准图显示,预测值和观测值之间有很好的匹配度。采用诺模图,与只包括T期和前哨淋巴结状态的模型相比,发展队列的C-统计量增加了9%-12%,验证队列的C-统计量增加了11%-15%。

综上,虽然大多数薄型黑色素瘤患者的预后良好,但也有部分患者会复发。本研究所开发的诺模图可以准确识别高复发风险的薄型黑色素瘤患者,有助于制定合理的治疗策略,从而改善患者预后。

原始出处:

El Sharouni Mary-Ann,Ahmed Tasnia,Varey Alexander H R et al. Development and Validation of Nomograms to Predict Local, Regional, and Distant Recurrence in Patients With Thin (T1) Melanomas. J Clin Oncol, 2021, undefined: JCO2002446.

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    2021-07-20 minlingfeng
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    2021-04-30 MedSciZeng

    #J Clin Oncol#点击查看更多该期刊内容

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    2022-02-10 sunylz
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    2021-02-26 chg122
  5. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1866017, encodeId=8434186601edd, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=16ce133504e' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Oncol#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=34, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=13350, encryptionId=16ce133504e, topicName=Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=b63894, createdName=minlingfeng, createdTime=Tue Jul 20 09:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=961859, encodeId=4c8d96185938, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=11cf104251a3' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#J Clin Oncol#</a>点击查看更多该期刊内容, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=74, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=104251, encryptionId=11cf104251a3, topicName=J Clin Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20221103/2796e00c9b4549e3b313ed9e7accc68f/b52d6d98bbe04782b5a4e2dd1ee80be2.jpeg, createdBy=078e1614372, createdName=MedSciZeng, createdTime=Fri Apr 30 17:18:20 CST 2021, time=2021-04-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1680718, encodeId=bade1680e1878, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=9e5c86e0712' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#色素#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=27, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=86707, encryptionId=9e5c86e0712, topicName=色素)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=343027846633, createdName=sunylz, createdTime=Thu Feb 10 17:43:17 CST 2022, time=2022-02-10, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1406024, encodeId=bea3140602410, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=a5404e589d7' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#局部#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=27, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=47589, encryptionId=a5404e589d7, topicName=局部)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=d14c2562456, createdName=chg122, createdTime=Fri Feb 26 14:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-26, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1559052, encodeId=3a67155905286, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=e27610332666' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#黑色素#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=26, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=103326, encryptionId=e27610332666, topicName=黑色素)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=150614999302, createdName=cqlidoudou, createdTime=Fri Feb 26 14:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-26, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1565061, encodeId=73d115650618c, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=e27610332666' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#黑色素#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=30, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=103326, encryptionId=e27610332666, topicName=黑色素)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=150614999302, createdName=cqlidoudou, createdTime=Fri Feb 26 14:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-26, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1038219, encodeId=26281038219a7, content=谢谢梅斯分享这么多精彩信息, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=43, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=anti-cancer, createdTime=Thu Feb 25 02:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-25, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047893, encodeId=01b4104e893f6, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=52, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Thu Feb 25 02:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-25, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
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  7. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1866017, encodeId=8434186601edd, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=16ce133504e' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Oncol#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=34, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=13350, encryptionId=16ce133504e, topicName=Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=b63894, createdName=minlingfeng, createdTime=Tue Jul 20 09:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-07-20, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=961859, encodeId=4c8d96185938, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=11cf104251a3' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#J Clin Oncol#</a>点击查看更多该期刊内容, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=74, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=104251, encryptionId=11cf104251a3, topicName=J Clin Oncol)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=https://img.medsci.cn/20221103/2796e00c9b4549e3b313ed9e7accc68f/b52d6d98bbe04782b5a4e2dd1ee80be2.jpeg, createdBy=078e1614372, createdName=MedSciZeng, createdTime=Fri Apr 30 17:18:20 CST 2021, time=2021-04-30, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1680718, encodeId=bade1680e1878, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=9e5c86e0712' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#色素#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=27, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=86707, encryptionId=9e5c86e0712, topicName=色素)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=343027846633, createdName=sunylz, createdTime=Thu Feb 10 17:43:17 CST 2022, time=2022-02-10, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1406024, encodeId=bea3140602410, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=a5404e589d7' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#局部#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=27, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=47589, encryptionId=a5404e589d7, topicName=局部)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=d14c2562456, createdName=chg122, createdTime=Fri Feb 26 14:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-26, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1559052, encodeId=3a67155905286, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=e27610332666' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#黑色素#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=26, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=103326, encryptionId=e27610332666, topicName=黑色素)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=150614999302, createdName=cqlidoudou, createdTime=Fri Feb 26 14:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-26, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1565061, encodeId=73d115650618c, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=e27610332666' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#黑色素#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=30, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=103326, encryptionId=e27610332666, topicName=黑色素)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=150614999302, createdName=cqlidoudou, createdTime=Fri Feb 26 14:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-26, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1038219, encodeId=26281038219a7, content=谢谢梅斯分享这么多精彩信息, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=43, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=anti-cancer, createdTime=Thu Feb 25 02:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-25, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047893, encodeId=01b4104e893f6, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=52, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Thu Feb 25 02:43:17 CST 2021, time=2021-02-25, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2021-02-25 anti-cancer

    谢谢梅斯分享这么多精彩信息

    0

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    2021-02-25 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

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