medRxiv :中山大学团队利用数学模型估计新型冠状病毒的流行性

2020-02-25 于晓程 生物探索

中山大学团队2月20日在预印本网站 medRxiv 上发表了一篇文章,利用数学模型估计了新型冠状病毒的流行性,并对疫情未来的控制提出了建议。

中山大学团队2月20日在预印本网站 medRxiv 上发表了一篇文章,利用数学模型估计了新型冠状病毒的流行性,并对疫情未来的控制提出了建议。
 
研究人员利用国家卫健委1月10日至2月8日期间的确诊病例数据,采用5种独立方法进行了数学建模研究,以评估COVID-19基本传染数(R0),并分析了武汉封城前(1月10日至1月23日)、封城后(1月23日至2月8日)的数据,从而评估该病毒的流行风险和武汉封城对COVID-19传播的有效性。这5种方法包括:指数增长(EG)、最大似然法(ML)、顺序贝叶斯方法(SB)、取决于时间的再生数(TD)和易感暴露感染恢复(SEIR)模型。
5种方法按流行期估计的基本传染数
 
结果发现,武汉市封闭前,COVID-19的基本传染数为4.38(95%CI:3.63-5.13),封闭后降至3.41(95%CI:3.16-3.65),在整个流行期间,COVID-19的基本传染数为3.39(95%CI:3.09-3.70),表明它具有很高的传播能力。其中一个显著特点是,在武汉关闭前的一段时间确定的基本传染数数值非常高,三种建模方法确定的R0值大于5,并且有可能超过6。这个数值与流行性腮腺炎和天花等极具传染性的疾病相一致,表明该疾病极有可能成为全球性流行病
 

根据5个模型估算的关闭前、关闭后和整个流行期间的预测流行曲线
 
这项研究通过使用最新、最准确的病例诊断方法,将几种建模方法与泊松损失权重相结合,从而避免了特定建模选择的局限性。这是第一个比较封闭期前后的研究,与之前的研究相比,这项研究计算出了更可靠的估计值,并且发现了更高的R0值。这对新加坡、日本、韩国和伦敦等疫情正在蔓延的城市具有重要意义,另外,这些城市应考虑在必要时实施更积极的预防政策,以防止严重的全球性大流行。

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    2020-02-26 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式,赞一个!

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