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Association between ambient temperature and mortality risk and burden: time series study in 272 main Chinese cities

第一作者:Chen, RJ

期刊: BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 2018; 363 (无)

OBJECTIVE To examine the association between temperature and cause specific mortality, and to quantify the corresponding disease burden attributable to non-optimum ambient temperatures. DESIGN Time series analysis. SETTING 272 main cities in China. POPULATION Non-accidental deaths in 272 cities covered by the Disease Surveillance Point System of China, from January 2013 to December 2015. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Daily numbers of deaths from all non-accidental causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases. Potential effect modifiers included demographic, climatic, geographical, and socioeconomic characteristics. The analysis used distributed lag non-linear models to estimate city specific associations, and multivariate meta-regression analysis to obtain the effect estimates at national and regional levels. RESULTS 1 826 186 non-accidental deaths from total causes were recorded in the study period. Temperature and mortality consistently showed inversely J shaped associations. At the national average level, relative to the minimum mortality temperature (22.8 degrees C, 79.1st centile), the mortality risk of extreme cold temperature (at -1.4 degrees C, the 2.5th centile) lasted for more than 14 days, whereas the risk of extreme hot temperature (at 29.0 degrees C, the 97.5th centile) appeared immediately and lasted for two to three days. 14.33% of non-accidental total mortality was attributable to non-optimum temperatures, of which moderate cold (ranging from -1.4 to 22.8 degrees C), moderate heat (22.8 to 29.0 degrees C), extreme cold (-6.4 to -1.4 degrees C), and extreme heat (29.0 to 31.6 degrees C) temperatures corresponded to attributable fractions of 10.49%, 2.08%, 1.14%, and 0.63%, respectively. The attributable fractions were 17.48% for overall cardiovascular disease, 18.76% for coronary heart disease, 16.11% for overall stroke, 14.09% for ischaemic stroke, 18.10% for haemorrhagic stroke, 10.57% for overall respiratory disease, and 12.57% for chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases. The mortality risk and burden were more prominent in the temperate monsoon and subtropical monsoon climatic zones, in specific subgroups (female sex, age = 75 years, and = 9 years spent in education), and in cities characterised by higher urbanisations rates and shorter durations of central heating. CONCLUSION This nationwide study provides a comprehensive picture of the non-linear associations between ambient temperature and mortality from all natural causes and main cardiorespiratory diseases, as well as the corresponding disease burden that is mainly attributable to moderate cold temperatures in China. The findings on vulnerability characteristics can help improve clinical and public health practices to reduce disease burden associated with current and future abnormal weather.

IF:27.6

Triple therapy in the management of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease: systematic review and meta-analysis

第一作者:Zheng, YY

期刊: BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 2018; 363 (无)

OBJECTIVE To compare the rate of moderate to severe exacerbations between triple therapy and dual therapy or monotherapy in patients with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD). DESIGN Systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials. DATA SOURCES PubMed, Embase, Cochrane databases, and clinical trial registries searched from inception to April 2018. ELIGIBILITY CRITERIA Randomised controlled trials comparing triple therapy with dual therapy or monotherapy in patients with COPD were eligible. Efficacy and safety outcomes of interest were also available. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS Data were collected independently. Meta-analyses were conducted to calculate rate ratios, hazard ratios, risk ratios, and mean differences with 95% confidence intervals. Quality of evidence was summarised in accordance with GRADE methodology (grading of recommendations assessment, development, and evaluation). RESULTS 21 trials (19 publications) were included. Triple therapy consisted of a long acting muscarinic antagonist (LAMA), long acting beta agonist (LABA), and inhaled corticosteroid (ICS). Triple therapy was associated with a significantly reduced rate of moderate or severe exacerbations compared with LAMA monotherapy (rate ratio 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.60 to 0.85), LAMA and LABA (0.78, 0.70 to 0.88), and ICS and LABA (0.77, 0.66 to 0.91). Trough forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) and quality of life were favourable with triple therapy. The overall safety profile of triple therapy is reassuring, but pneumonia was significantly higher with triple therapy than with dual therapy of LAMA and LABA (relative risk 1.53, 95% confidence interval 1.25 to 1.87). CONCLUSIONS Use of triple therapy resulted in a lower rate of moderate or severe exacerbations of COPD, better lung function, and better health related quality of life than dual therapy or monotherapy in patients with advanced COPD.

IF:27.6

Incidence of type 1 diabetes in China, 2010-13: population based study

第一作者:Weng, J

期刊: BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 2018; 360 (无)

OBJECTIVE To estimate the incidence of type 1 diabetes in all age groups in China during 2010-13. DESIGN Population based, registry study using data from multiple independent sources. SETTING National registration system in all 505 hospitals providing diabetes care, and communities of patients with diabetes in 13 areas across China, covering more than 133 million person years at risk, approximately 10% of the whole population. PARTICIPANTS 5018 people of all ages with newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes and resident in the study areas from 1 January 2010 to 31 December 2013. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100 000 person years by age, sex, and study area. Type 1 diabetes was doctor diagnosed and further validated by onsite follow-up. Completeness of case ascertainment was assessed using the capture mark recapture method. RESULTS 5018 cases of newly diagnosed type 1 diabetes were ascertained: 1239 participants were aged <15 years, 1799 were aged 15-29 years, and 1980 were aged >= 30 years. The proportion of new onset cases in participants aged >= 20 years was 65.3%. The estimated incidence of type 1 diabetes per 100 000 persons years for all ages in China was 1.01 (95% confidence interval 0.18 to 1.84). Incidence per 100 000 persons years by age group was 1.93 (0.83 to 3.03) for 0-14 years, 1.28 (0.45 to 2.11) for 15-29 years, and 0.69 (0.00 to 1.51) for >= 30 years, with a peak in age group 10-14 years. The incidence in under 15s was positively correlated with latitude (r=0.88, P<0.001), although this association was not observed in age groups 15-29 years or >= 30 years. CONCLUSION Most cases of new onset type 1 diabetes in China occurred among adults. The incidence of type 1 diabetes in Chinese children was among the lowest reported in the study.

IF:27.6

Relaxation of the one child policy and trends in caesarean section rates and birth outcomes in China between 2012 and 2016: observational study of nearly seven million health facility births

第一作者:Liang, J

期刊: BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 2018; 360 (无)

OBJECTIVE To examine how the relaxation of the one child policy and policies to reduce caesarean section rates might have affected trends over time in caesarean section rates and perinatal and pregnancy related mortality in China. DESIGN Observational study. SETTING China's National Maternal Near Miss Surveillance System (NMNMSS). PARTICIPANTS 6838582 births at 28 completed weeks or more of gestation or birth weight >= 1000 g in 438 hospitals in the NMNMSS between 2012 and 2016. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Obstetric risk was defined using a modified Robson classification. The main outcome measures were changes in parity and age distributions and relative frequency of each Robson group, crude and adjusted trends over time in caesarean section rates within each risk category (using Poisson regression with a robust variance estimator), and trends in perinatal and pregnancy related mortality over time. RESULTS Caesarean section rates declined steadily between 2012 and 2016 (crude relative risk 0.91, 95% confidence interval 0.89 to 0.93), reaching an overall hospital based rate of 41.1% in 2016. The relaxation of the one child policy was associated with an increase in the proportion of multiparous births (from 34.1% in 2012 to 46.7% in 2016), and births in women with a uterine scar nearly doubled (from 9.8% to 17.7% of all births). Taking account of these changes, the decline in caesarean sections was amplified over time (adjusted relative risk 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.81 to 0.84). Caesarean sections declined noticeably in nulliparous women (0.75, 0.73 to 0.77) but also declined in multiparous women without a uterine scar (0.65, 0.62 to 0.77). The decrease in caesarean section rates was most pronounced in hospitals with the highest rates in 2012, consistent with the government's policy of targeting hospitals with the highest rates. Perinatal mortality declined from 10.1 to 7.2 per 1000 births over the same period (0.87, 0.83 to 0.91), and there was no change in pregnancy related mortality over time. CONCLUSIONS China is the only country that has succeeded in reverting the rising trends in caesarean sections. China's success is remarkable given that the changes in obstetric risk associated with the relaxation of the one child policy would have led to an increase in the need for caesarean sections. China's experience suggests that change is possible when strategies are comprehensive and deal with the system level factors that underpin overuse as well as the various incentives at work during a clinical encounter.

IF:27.6

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