流行病预测和预测研究推荐报告项目：EPIFORGE 2020指南
2023-10-02 Equator Network PLoS Med. 2021 Oct; 18(10): e1003793 发表于加利福尼亚
几十年来包括 COVID-19 在内的传染病暴发凸显了传染病流行预测和预测研究的重要性。 与临床试验和系统评价等其他医学研究领域不同，尽管流行病预测和预测研究很实用，但并不存在报告指南。 因此，我们制
中文标题：
流行病预测和预测研究推荐报告项目：EPIFORGE 2020指南
发布机构：
发布日期：
2023-10-02
简要介绍：
几十年来包括 COVID-19 在内的传染病暴发凸显了传染病流行预测和预测研究的重要性。 与临床试验和系统评价等其他医学研究领域不同，尽管流行病预测和预测研究很实用，但并不存在报告指南。 因此，我们制定了 EPIFORGE 检查清单，这是流行病预测研究标准化报告的指南。
方法和结果
我们使用制定报告指南的最佳实践流程制定了此清单，其中包括德尔菲流程以及与国际传染病建模者和模型最终用户小组的广泛咨询。 这些指南的目标是提高流行病预测报告的一致性、可重复性、可比性和质量。 该指南的目的不是为科学家如何进行流行病预测和预测研究提供建议，而是作为报告此类研究的关键方法细节的标准。
结论
这些指南已提交给 EQUATOR 网络，并由其他专用网页托管以促进反馈和期刊认可。
| Section of manuscript | # | Checklist item | Reported on pagea |
|---|---|---|---|
| Title/Abstract | 1 | Describe the study as forecast or prediction research in at least the title or abstract | |
| Introduction | 2 | Define the purpose of study and forecasting targets | |
| Methods | 3 | Fully document the methods | |
| Methods | 4 | Identify whether the forecast was performed prospectively, in real time, and/or retrospectively | |
| Methods | 5 | Explicitly describe the origin of input source data, with references | |
| Methods | 6 | Provide source data with publication, or document reasons as to why this was not possible | |
| Methods | 7 | Describe input data processing procedures in detail | |
| Methods | 8 | State and describe the model type, and document model assumptions, including references | |
| Methods | 9 | Make the model code available, or document the reasons why this was not possible | |
| Methods | 10 | Describe the model validation, and justify the approach | |
| Methods | 11 | Describe the forecast accuracy evaluation method used, with justification | |
| Methods | 12 | Where possible, compare model results to a benchmark or other comparator model, with justification of comparator choice | |
| Methods | 13 | Describe the forecast horizon, with justification of its length | |
| Results | 14 | Present and explain uncertainty of forecasting results | |
| Resultsb | 15 | Briefly summarize the results in nontechnical terms, including a nontechnical interpretation of forecast uncertainty | |
| Results | 16 | If results are published as a data object, encourage a time-stamped version number | |
| Discussion | 17 | Describe the weaknesses of the forecast, including weaknesses specific to data quality and methods | |
| Discussion | 18 | If the research is applicable to a specific epidemic, comment on its potential implications and impact for public health action and decision-making | |
| Discussion | 19 | If the research is applicable to a specific epidemic, comment on how generalizable it may be across populations | |
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pmed.1003793.pdf
pmed.1003793.pdf
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