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Biosci Trends：一种临床评分模型，可用于预测中国艾滋病末期HIV/TB合并感染患者的死亡率

2019-04-16 不详 网络

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本研究中，研究人员构建并验证了一种非侵入性临床评分模型，以预测中国艾滋病末期HIV/TB患者的死亡率。研究纳入2009年8月至2018年1月在北京地坛医院收治的1007名HIV/TB患者，随机分配到衍生队列和验证队列。基于与Cox比例风险模型确定的死亡率相关的预测因子开发临床评分模型。使用ROC曲线下的面积进一步验证模型的辨别力和准确性。衍生和验证队列分别由807和200名患者组成，比例为8：2。

本研究中，研究人员构建并验证了一种非侵入性临床评分模型，以预测中国艾滋病末期HIV/TB患者的死亡率。

研究纳入2009年8月至2018年1月在北京地坛医院收治的1007名HIV/TB患者，随机分配到衍生队列和验证队列。基于与Cox比例风险模型确定的死亡率相关的预测因子开发临床评分模型。使用ROC曲线下的面积进一步验证模型的辨别力和准确性。衍生和验证队列分别由807和200名患者组成，比例为8：2。

结果显示，在衍生队列中，贫血（HGB <90g/L），结核性脑膜炎，重症肺炎，低蛋白血症，不明原因感染或占位性病变以及恶性肿瘤仍然是HIV/TB合并感染患者死亡的独立危险因素，并包括在内临床评分模型。该模型表明良好的区分，包括衍生组中的AUC = 0.858（95％CI：0.782-0.943），以及验证组中的AUC = 0.867（95％CI：0.832-0.902）。将预测评分分为两组，以预测死亡率：低风险（0-2点，死亡率为3.6-9.1％）和高风险（4-16点，死亡率为26.42-74.62％），其中高风险组54.55% 5-11分和74％12-16分的患者死亡。 Kaplan-Meier曲线通过对数秩检验显示两组累积死亡率存在显著差异（p <0.001）。

总之，该研究结果表明，基于入院时可获得的简单实验室和临床特征，构建了评估艾滋病末期HIV/TB患者预后的临床评分模型，这可能是一种易于使用的工具，可供医生评估预后和治疗结果在HIV/TB共感染患者中。该模型还适用于预测出院后12个月内终末期HIV/TB患者的死亡情况。

原始出处：

Zhang Z, Xu L, et al., A Clinical scoring model to predict mortality in HIV/TB co-infected patients at end stage of AIDS in China: An observational cohort study. Biosci Trends. 2019 Mar 29. doi: 10.5582/bst.2018.01309.

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  1. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1918619, encodeId=9699191861915, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=4f26341994' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Bio#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=0, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=3419, encryptionId=4f26341994, topicName=Bio)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=a12645, createdName=docwu2019, createdTime=Tue Mar 03 13:45:00 CST 2020, time=2020-03-03, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1905719, encodeId=1a621905e19a5, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=2ebd1e7981a' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#trend#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=42, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=17798, encryptionId=2ebd1e7981a, topicName=trend)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=ced3193, createdName=freve, createdTime=Tue Aug 13 08:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-08-13, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1785292, encodeId=03001e8529201, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=51906e79a6' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#ENDS#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=6779, encryptionId=51906e79a6, topicName=ENDS)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=82ba2500166, createdName=ms1467340776200723, createdTime=Tue Oct 01 15:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-10-01, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047695, encodeId=2db9104e695c4, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式，赞一个！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Tue Apr 16 18:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-04-16, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2020-03-03 docwu2019

    #Bio#

    0

  2. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1918619, encodeId=9699191861915, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=4f26341994' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Bio#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=0, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=3419, encryptionId=4f26341994, topicName=Bio)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=a12645, createdName=docwu2019, createdTime=Tue Mar 03 13:45:00 CST 2020, time=2020-03-03, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1905719, encodeId=1a621905e19a5, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=2ebd1e7981a' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#trend#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=42, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=17798, encryptionId=2ebd1e7981a, topicName=trend)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=ced3193, createdName=freve, createdTime=Tue Aug 13 08:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-08-13, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1785292, encodeId=03001e8529201, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=51906e79a6' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#ENDS#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=6779, encryptionId=51906e79a6, topicName=ENDS)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=82ba2500166, createdName=ms1467340776200723, createdTime=Tue Oct 01 15:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-10-01, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047695, encodeId=2db9104e695c4, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式，赞一个！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Tue Apr 16 18:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-04-16, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2019-08-13 freve

    #trend#

    0

  3. [GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1918619, encodeId=9699191861915, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=4f26341994' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#Bio#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=0, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=3419, encryptionId=4f26341994, topicName=Bio)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=a12645, createdName=docwu2019, createdTime=Tue Mar 03 13:45:00 CST 2020, time=2020-03-03, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1905719, encodeId=1a621905e19a5, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=2ebd1e7981a' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#trend#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=42, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=17798, encryptionId=2ebd1e7981a, topicName=trend)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=, createdBy=ced3193, createdName=freve, createdTime=Tue Aug 13 08:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-08-13, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1785292, encodeId=03001e8529201, content=<a href='/topic/show?id=51906e79a6' target=_blank style='color:#2F92EE;'>#ENDS#</a>, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[TopicDto(id=6779, encryptionId=51906e79a6, topicName=ENDS)], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=82ba2500166, createdName=ms1467340776200723, createdTime=Tue Oct 01 15:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-10-01, status=1, ipAttribution=), GetPortalCommentsPageByObjectIdResponse(id=1047695, encodeId=2db9104e695c4, content=梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式，赞一个！, beContent=null, objectType=article, channel=null, level=null, likeNumber=36, replyNumber=0, topicName=null, topicId=null, topicList=[], attachment=null, authenticateStatus=null, createdAvatar=null, createdBy=f0620, createdName=CHANGE, createdTime=Tue Apr 16 18:45:00 CST 2019, time=2019-04-16, status=1, ipAttribution=)]
    2019-10-01 ms1467340776200723

    #ENDS#

    0

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    2019-04-16 CHANGE

    梅斯里提供了很多疾病的模型计算公式，赞一个！

    0